- forecasting bias
- Биржевой термин: ошибка в прогнозировании
Универсальный англо-русский словарь. Академик.ру. 2011.
forecasting bias
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Forecasting — is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in… … Wikipedia
Optimism bias — is the demonstrated systematic tendency for people to be overly optimistic about the outcome of planned actions. This includes over estimating the likelihood of positive events and under estimating the likelihood of negative events. Along with… … Wikipedia
economic forecasting — Prediction of future economic activity and developments. Economic forecasts, which range from a few weeks to many years, are widely used in business and government to help formulate policy and strategy. Macroeconomic forecasts predict the course… … Universalium
Reference class forecasting — predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. They helped… … Wikipedia
Affective forecasting — is the forecasting of one s affect (emotional state) in the future. This kind of prediction is affected by various kinds of cognitive biases, i.e. systematic errors of thought. Daniel Gilbert of the department of social psychology at Harvard… … Wikipedia
Impact bias — The impact bias, a form of which is the durability bias, in affective forecasting, is the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of future feeling states. In other words, people seem to think that if disaster strikes it… … Wikipedia
Technology forecasting — is forecasting the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or .Important aspectsPrimarily, a technological forecast deals with the characteristics of technology, such as levels of technical performance, like speed of a … Wikipedia
Demand forecasting — is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase. Demand forecasting involves techniques including both informal methods, such as educated guesses, and quantitative methods, such as the use of… … Wikipedia
Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting — involves using scientific models and other tools to predict the precipitation expected in tropical cyclones such as hurricanes and typhoons. Knowledge of tropical cyclone rainfall climatology is helpful in the determination of a tropical cyclone… … Wikipedia
Transportation forecasting — is the process of estimating the number of vehicles or travelers that will use a specific transportation facility in the future. A forecast estimates, for instance, the number of vehicles on a planned freeway or bridge, the ridership on a railway … Wikipedia
Hindsight bias — is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. Hindsight bias has been demonstrated experimentally in a variety of settings, including politics, games and medicine. In… … Wikipedia
